Nber business cycle dating
Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades.
The committee places particular emphasis on two monthly measures of activity across the entire economy: (1) personal income less transfer payments, in real terms and (2) employment.(December 21,1990) Bulletin on Retirement and Disability Bulletin on Health including Archive of Lists of Affiliates' Work in Medical and Other Journals with Pre-Publication Restrictions Archives of Bulletin on Aging and Health Digest — Non-technical summaries of 4-8 working papers per month Reporter — News about the Bureau and its activities.Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research January 7, 2008 This report is also available as a PDF file. The chronology identifies the dates of peaks and troughs that frame economic recession or expansion.The Committee observed that output and employment in the U. However, because many data are still preliminary, the Committee has not made a definite determination of the turning point.The Committee's policy is to make a decision only after the data show a sufficiently long and deep contraction that the episode would be termed a recession even if it were followed immediately by a strong upturn in the economy.